The Future of Fuel

It might be hard to believe, but in February 2002 unleaded gasoline was just $1.31 per gallon. Disasters, both natural and economic, have driven this price to the point that we experience highway robbery before reaching an actual highway.

So why does this phenomenon have Midwestern farmers rejoicing? It seems the only thing petroleum has fueled lately is a national uproar, but some see $3 a gallon as a harbinger of change. Some say necessity is the mother of invention, but affordability is the mother of consumption – and motorists are eager for a fuel source that won’t fatten the pensions of oil magnates.

Ethanol just might be the answer. In the United States ethanol is mostly derived from corn, but soy, wheat, barley and potatoes can also produce the substance through a ferment and distillation process. Brazil, the world’s largest producer of ethanol and an independent energy state, garners the fuel from sugarcane. America’s own energy independence means international policy wouldn’t be affected by placating to nations we need oil from.

When produced, ethanol is a high-octane renewable source of energy that blends easily with fossil fuels. As of now, about a third of America’s 170,000 gas stations carry gasoline that is 10% ethanol, called e10, which can run in any vehicle that normally operates on unleaded gasoline. A more concentrated blend, e85 (85% ethanol, 15% gasoline) will only power “flex-fuel” cars specially designed for the new energy source.

Currently, there are about 12 million vehicles worldwide (about half that in the U.S.) designated as “flex-fuel” that can run on e85. The problem? Only 700 gas stations nationwide are currently rigged to dispense e85, the vast majority of which are in the Midwest. This might be good news if you’re from Minnesota or Iowa, but about those of us who aren’t Badgers or Hawkeyes?

In the next 8-12 months those 700 stations will swell to 2,000, and that figure is expected to increase dramatically after that – some in Washington predict that half the fuel pumps in America will carry concentrated ethanol by 2015. But the shift to a new technology, as with any major change, has its share of obstacles.

First and foremost is the cost factor. On the whole, Americans have shown they can be environmentally conscious, provided that there is a concrete incentive – after all, it wasn’t until the introduction of hybrid vehicle tax breaks that Prius sales really took off.

As of right now, e85 is cheaper than a gallon of unleaded gasoline but does not produce as much energy. A vehicle that attains 30 mpg on regular gas will likely only reach 21-23 mpg running on a condensed blend of ethanol, but with little to no sacrifice in performance. Overall, e85 would have to cost about 25-30% less per gallon to be more cost-effective than gas, whereas it now saves a fraction of that.

That is likely to change as ethanol production increases, and the cost of e85 in just a few years might even be a fraction what it is now. But another question is raised – how much can it improve the environment?

The answer is more conflicting than one might expect. There’s no question ethanol is an environmental improvement over gasoline – simply because it is a renewable energy source – but it’s how much of an improvement that sparks debate.

For instance, one study cites that ethanol use in Chicago over the last fifteen years has already reduced airborne pollutants and emissions by 25%, though part of that percentage should be attributed to quality improvements in gasoline over that span. Vehicles, on average, also get slightly better gas mileage than they did in 1991.

Another study acknowledges ethanol with reducing annual greenhouse gas emissions by seven million tons in 2004. About a third of ethanol’s content is oxygen – a higher proportion than in any other fuel – making it burn more completely and thus allowing fewer toxins into the atmosphere.

Though seven million tons may sound like a huge number, it is just the tip of the iceberg when it comes to our nation’s yearly output of CO₂ and other harmful gases. But we are hardly implementing ethanol to its full capacity, and some estimate that such a shift in fuel consumption would reduce overall emissions by as much as 60%.

Capacity itself is an issue, however. If we used just corn and soy for ethanol production, we would need fields the size of states to keep up with demand should ethanol replace oil altogether. Likely ethanol is just going to be part of the larger solution, unless major breakthroughs in production ability increase.

As GM and other manufacturers continue a serious long-term effort in producing flex-fuel vehicles and gas stations around the country begin sprouting ethanol pumps, it would appear a major shift is in the works. The potential benefit is monumental and the goal is attainable, and that should have all of us breathing easier.

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